India Economic Outlook 2025
Projections based on Union Budget allocations and global economic trends
GDP GROWTH TRAJECTORY
2021-20252023: 7.2% actual
2024: 6.8% projected
2025: 7.1% forecast
BUDGET ALLOCATION BY SECTOR
% of total expenditureInfrastructure: ₹11.1L Cr (18.6%)
Digital India: ₹1.5L Cr (2.5%)
Agriculture: ₹6.2L Cr (10.4%)
₹8.2L Cr (13.7%)
NOMINAL GDP (2025)
$5.5T
+9.8% CAGR
2023: $3.7T
2030: $7.5T
FISCAL DEFICIT
5.1%
Target: 4.5%
2023: 6.4%
2026 Target: 4.0%
INFLATION (CPI)
4.8%
Within RBI band
2023: 6.7%
Target: 4±2%
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
6.2%
-0.8% YoY
2023: 7.0%
2025 Target: 5.5%
SECTORAL GROWTH PROJECTIONS
INFRASTRUCTURE
PM Gati Shakti allocations
Roads & Highways
₹2.7L Cr
+22% YoY
Railways Capex
₹2.5L Cr
+18% YoY
Key Projects: 25,000 km new highways, 400 Vande Bharat trains
Impact: 1.2% GDP boost, 8M jobs by 2025
MAKE IN INDIA 2.0
PLI scheme expansions
Electronics Mfg
₹1.2L Cr
+35% YoY
Pharma & MedTech
₹78K Cr
+28% YoY
Target: 30% export growth, $1T mfg GDP by 2030
Focus: Semiconductor fabs, EV batteries, drones
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION
India Stack expansions
AI Mission
₹10K Cr
New initiative
5G Infrastructure
₹25K Cr
+40% YoY
Goals: $1T digital economy, 10K AI startups
Initiatives: Digital rupee, Bhashini NLP platform
| Sector | Budget 2025 | Growth % | GDP Contribution | Employment Potential | Key Initiatives |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Infrastructure Core
|
₹11.1L Cr | 18.6% | 12.4% | 8.2M | NIP, Gati Shakti |
|
Renewable Energy Green
|
₹4.2L Cr | 35.2% | 4.8% | 3.5M | Solar Mission, Green H2 |
|
Healthcare Social
|
₹3.8L Cr | 12.7% | 3.2% | 2.8M | Ayushman Bharat, PM-ABHIM |
|
Agriculture Rural
|
₹6.2L Cr | 8.4% | 18.3% | - | e-NAM, FPOs |
|
Defense Strategic
|
₹5.9L Cr | 13.2% | 2.1% | 1.2M | Atmanirbhar Bharat |
STATE-WISE DEVELOPMENT INDEX
STATE GDP CONTRIBUTION
2025 projections (% of national GDP)
Maharashtra: 14.2% | ₹38.5L Cr
Tamil Nadu: 8.7% | ₹23.6L Cr
Karnataka: 8.1% | ₹22.0L Cr
Gujarat: 7.9% | ₹21.4L Cr
INVESTMENT HOTSPOTS
Approved FDI inflows (2024-25)
Maharashtra
$15.2B
Karnataka
$9.8B
Gujarat
$7.5B
HIGH GROWTH STATES
GDP growth > national avg
Andhra Pradesh
8.3% growth
Ports: ₹42K Cr
EV Hub
Telangana
8.1% growth
Pharma: ₹28K Cr
IT exports
Odisha
7.9% growth
Steel: ₹1.2L Cr
Mineral hub
Madhya Pradesh
7.7% growth
Agri: ₹35K Cr
Textiles
FISCAL HEALTH INDICATORS
REVENUE COMPOSITION
2025 budget estimates (₹ in lakh crores)
Tax Revenue: ₹27.5L Cr (68%)
Non-Tax: ₹5.8L Cr (14%)
Borrowings: ₹15.4L Cr (38%)
EXPENDITURE PRIORITIES
2025 budget allocations
Capital Expenditure
₹15.3L Cr
+18% YoY
Interest Payments
₹11.8L Cr
24% of revenue
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY
FRBM targetsDebt-to-GDP Ratio
58.2%
→ From 60.8% in 2023
External Debt
$620B
↘ 18.3% of GDP
Fiscal Deficit
5.1%
Center (4.5%),
States (3.5%)
Revenue Deficit
2.8%
2027 Target: 1.5%
